Wednesday, February 28, 2018

[Main Spoilers] Varys and Ned's Plan?

In the very last Eddard chapter, we see Ned in the Black Cells where he first hallucinates Robert berating him for his pride and honor. Some time later, Varys visits him in the guise of a gaoler and they have a long chat about current events. Couple of things of note here - Ned asks Varys if he'd deliver a message for him and Varys replies "Sure, if its in my interest". Varys refuses to help Ned escape and makes the case that Ned either confesses his treason or Sansa is killed.

Some time later, an unknown man approaches Yoren with a boy for him and a purse of coin and tells him to stick around because Lord Stark would be headed to the Wall soon. And the next we see Ned, he makes his confession and is beheaded. Yoren then heads to the Wall with 3 recruits of note - Arya, Gendry and Jaqen H'qar.

Now, the straightforward interpretation of these events sounds pretty reasonable. Varys was trying to postpone the war. He managed to persuade Ned with the threat to Sansa. Cersei had every intention of sending Ned to the Wall and if Joffrey hadn't mucked it up, Ned would've headed out with Yoren.

But there are a few details that don't sit right with me.

  1. Contrary to popular opinion, Ned isn't stupid. He understands the game better than most people realize and he'd understand that Sansa is a valuable hostage. And if she is killed, Cersei wouldn't have any leverage left over Ned. The smarter choice for Ned probably would've been to stay imprisoned and let the war develop a little more.

  2. Varys wasn't there in an official capacity. He visited Ned as a gaoler - which means he wasn't relaying Cersei's message, he was telling Ned that this is what she would do. Shouldn't Ned have waited for an official threat to be made before capitulating?

  3. The message Ned wanted to give Varys - we have no idea who it was for and what its contents would've been.

  4. The idea was that Cersei would trust Ned to accept Joffrey's judgement because he was a man of honor. The problem is, once Ned confesses, both of his options are dishonorable. Either he keeps quiet about a bastard being king or he breaks his word. So Ned's honor itself wouldn't guarantee Ned's silence once he is out of Cersei's reach - and Cersei would know this. So its unlikely that she'd acutally send him to the Wall - atleast not until the war was over. So why would there be a man of Night's Watch ready to take Ned as soon as the sentence was passed?

  5. Varys asked Ned to confess his treason, proclaim Joffrey as the true king, denounce Stannis and Renly and command Robb to lay down his arms. In his confession, Ned only did the first two. While the others could be taken as implied - I don't think Cersei would've carried out the sentence until after Robb had actually surrendered to Tywin.

  6. Normally, politically significant people are taken to the Wall by sea. Less chance of them escaping or dying en route that way. This would've been especially true for Ned - rather than being sent through a war-torn territory, a large swathe of which was controlled by the Starks, sending Ned by the sea would make more sense. If so, why would he be handed over to Yoren, who was traveling by the road.

  7. Someone must have paid Yoren to take Gendry. And its not like Varys to take such actions on his own. My guess is, it was Ned's request.

None of these issues is anything significant on its own. But taken together, they seem to imply that there was a lot more to Ned and Varys' chat than we know about. That they thought of a plan to facilitate Ned's escape with, probably, Ned's support for the Targaryen restoration in the future. But for the life of me, I can't figure out the details of this plan.

The idea of Ned heading towards the Wall, only to escape mid-way and join his army sounds fine - but how was Varys planning on making Cersei agree to it? Letting Ned head to the Wall immediately and by road, no less, would've been pretty stupid even for her. Was Varys hoping that as soon as the sentence is passed, Yoren would come up to the stage and offer to take Ned there and then? And that since it was such a public spectacle, Cersei wouldn't dare refuse? That plan seems way too weak for someone like Varys.

And what was the point of making sure that Gendry and Ned end up in the same group? For Gendry's safety, he should've been kept as far from Cersei as possible - so why make Yoren (and by extension, Gendry) wait for Ned to be ready to go?

And what role, if any, did J'aqen play in all this?

Anyone got any ideas?



Submitted February 28, 2018 at 12:03PM by genkaus http://ift.tt/2ov6slI

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