This may seem off topic, but I assure you it isn’t.
I was just rereading Nassim Taleb’s “The Black Swan.” When he started explaining The Lindy Effect I started to feel dread. (I think he also mentions this is Anti-fragile)
He is explaining that if we pick any duration of time for something existing that we are in the middle of that duration. If a song has been #1 in the charts for 3 weeks, that if that’s the only information we have, that we can expect it to stay there for another 3 weeks. If we have been performing Hamlet for a little over 420 years, that we will still perform it for the next 420.
Here is the exact quote that got me:
“Let's say a project is expected to terminate in 79 days, the same expectation in days as the newborn female has in years. On the 79th day, if the project is not finished, it will be expected to take another 25 days to complete. But on the 90th day, if the project is still not completed, it should have about 58 days to go. On the 100th, it should have 89 days to go. On the 119th, it should have an extra 149 days. On day 600, if the project is not done, you will be expected to need an extra 1,590 days. As you see, the longer you wait, the longer you will be expected to wait.”
Is it just me, or does this relate a little to closely with our waiting for GRRM?
Submitted December 24, 2020 at 01:39AM by Darth-Pooky https://ift.tt/2KB7Tx4
No comments:
Post a Comment