Spoiler Warning: This post is recommended for those who have watched the full series. Will contain MANY spoilers up to and through Season 7. Fundamentally however it presents an alternate timeline scenario...
spoilers below 3 2 1
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Okay so, could Daenerys have successfully invaded Westeros if it were totally united when she arrived? To make this as ideal as possible for Westeros at the time, we'll assume the following (occasionally unrealistic) things happened beforehand:
• Cersei gets outed very early on for her crimes and is executed, with the Mountain somehow dying (again) protecting her. Qyburn manages to save his own skin/hide his involvement. Margaery Tyrell never dies, and regains her spot as the de-facto power behind the Throne (aka Tommen, who also lives and is effectively controlled by her). High Sparrow is slowly, carefully, marginalized before she arrives but still feels he/the faith have influence with Tommen.
• Accordingly, the High Sparrow doesn't want Daenerys taking over, as she'd be far harder to manipulate and has dabbled too much in Eastern religious practices (ie. Dothraki) to be safe. He, and the faith, paint her as a murderous, dangerous, heretic to the common folk.
• Queen Margaery remains exceedingly popular due to her charity and PR savvy, and the common people love the Margaery-Tommen monarchy. Outside claimants are viewed by both the nobility and commoners as unwanted "sh*t disturbers" likely to start another war nobody wants.
• Olenna Tyrell has a solid grip on the small council, and no interest in helping Daenerys (as she'd rather keep her granddaughter de-facto in charge of Westeros).
• Kevan Lannister lives, and is in charge of the Westerlands and Lannister forces. He is loyal to Tommen and aligned with the Tyrells (esp Olenna).
• Reach Lords, namely Randyl Tarly, never turn on Olenna/Mace because they never back Daenerys to begin with. They remain loyal bannermen and, as on the show, are determined to keep out Danys "army of foreign savages".
• Somehow Myrcella manages to not get assassinated, and the Martells (with Doran still in the lead) remain aligned with the Iron Throne, retaining a council seat. With Tywin, Cersei, and the Mountain dead the Sand Snakes don't bother mounting a coup and remain nominally loyal to Doran.
• Sansa Stark, as Lady of Winterfell, is the real political power of the north and has the backing of the North Lords, Vale Lords (via Yohn Royce), and Tullys (who take back the Riverlands under the Blackfish). Unlike in the OG timeline however she's not an ardent separatist, and is convinced of the possibility of working with Margaery (who she trusts/remembers fondly from their time in Kings Landing) as opposed to Daenerys (who, as normal, she entirely distrusts).
• Qyburn is still contracted by the crown to produce the Scorpion ballistas for defence against the Dragons.
• Jon Snow, on Sansa's advice/urging, goes to Tommen/Margaery for an alliance against the White Walker threat first, and thus the Night King never gets a dragon or breaches the wall. That threat is contained, at least for the duration of the conflict. Jon and Dany never become a thing.
• Euron Greyjoy still backs the crown, if for no other reason than that Yara went to Daenerys first, and he wants his niece and nephew very dead rather than plotting to take back the Iron Islands.
With all that covered, could Daenerys succeed under those circumstances? Are the Dragons, Unsullied, and Dothraki enough to overcome the armies and fleets of the Crown, the Reach, the Westerlands, Dorne, the Vale, the Riverlands, the Iron Islands, and the North together... even with the commonfolk and faithful ardently opposed to the invasion?
I've heard the Dragons described as being tantamount to a cheat code in a video game a lot, so I'm curious. Given the worst possible circumstances that could've politically existed at the time, would that "cheat code" have been enough? In other words, was Dany's conquest inevitable the moment she decided to cross the Narrow Sea?
Submitted June 09, 2022 at 02:15AM by TechnothepigWasTaken https://ift.tt/jeMlcKa
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